Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion

• Verfasst von: Jokar Arsanjani, Jamal [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Helbich, Marco [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Kainz, Wolfgang [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Darvishi Boloorani, Ali [VerfasserIn]
• Titel: Integration of logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata models to simulate urban expansion
• Verf.angabe: Jamal Jokar Arsanjani, Marco Helbich, Wolfgang Kainz, Ali Darvishi Boloorani
• Jahr: 2013
• Jahr des Originals: 2012
• Umfang: 11 S.
• Fussnoten: Gesehen am 20.10.2020 ; First published: 20 January 2012
• Titel Quelle: Enthalten in: International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation
• Ort Quelle: Amsterdam [u.a.] : Elsevier Science, 1999
• Jahr Quelle: 2013
• Band/Heft Quelle: 21(2013), Seite 265-275
• ISSN Quelle: 1872-826X
• DOI: doi:10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.014
• Datenträger: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: eng
• Sach-SW: Cellular automata
• Sach-SW: Land use change
• Sach-SW: Logistic regression
• Sach-SW: Markov chain
• Sach-SW: Tehran
• K10plus-PPN: 1736050044

Abstract

This research analyses the suburban expansion in the metropolitan area of Tehran, Iran. A hybrid model consisting of logistic regression model, Markov chain (MC), and cellular automata (CA) was designed to improve the performance of the standard logistic regression model. Environmental and socio-economic variables dealing with urban sprawl were operationalised to create a probability surface of spatiotemporal states of built-up land use for the years 2006, 2016, and 2026. For validation, the model was evaluated by means of relative operating characteristic values for different sets of variables. The approach was calibrated for 2006 by cross comparing of actual and simulated land use maps. The achieved outcomes represent a match of 89% between simulated and actual maps of 2006, which was satisfactory to approve the calibration process. Thereafter, the calibrated hybrid approach was implemented for forthcoming years. Finally, future land use maps for 2016 and 2026 were predicted by means of this hybrid approach. The simulated maps illustrate a new wave of suburban development in the vicinity of Tehran at the western border of the metropolis during the next decades.