How economic crises damage potential output

• Verfasst von: Dovern, Jonas [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Zuber, Christopher [VerfasserIn]
• Titel: How economic crises damage potential output
• Titelzusatz: evidence from the Great Recession
• Verf.angabe: Jonas Dovern, Christopher Zuber
• E-Jahr: 2020
• Jahr: 16 July 2020
• Umfang: 14 S.
• Fussnoten: Gesehen am 27.11.2020
• Titel Quelle: Enthalten in: Journal of macroeconomics
• Ort Quelle: Detroit, Mich. : Wayne State University Press, 1979
• Jahr Quelle: 2020
• Band/Heft Quelle: 65(2020), Artikel-ID 103239, Seite 1-14
• ISSN Quelle: 0164-0704
• DOI: doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103239
• Datenträger: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: eng
• Bibliogr. Hinweis: Erscheint auch als : Druck-Ausgabe: Dovern, Jonas, 1980 - : How economic crises damage potential output. - 2020
• Sach-SW: European Commission
• Sach-SW: Great Recession
• Sach-SW: Output gap
• Sach-SW: Potential output
• Sach-SW: Trend
• K10plus-PPN: 1741403197

Abstract

Economic crises lead to lower potential output (PO) estimates, but little is known about which components of PO are revised. Our paper answers the questions of how much, how fast, and how persistently estimates of the capital stock, of trend labor, and of trend total factor productivity are revised downwards after major economic crises. It shows that revisions to different components of PO contributed equally to the substantial overall decline in estimated PO levels. Revisions of trend labor are predominantly driven by revisions of the NAWRU. The heterogeneity of revisions across EU countries after the Great Recession is large, suggesting that different policies are needed to bring countries back to their previous growth paths.