Economic growth, education and AIDS in Kenya

• Verfasst von: Bell, Clive
• Titel: Economic growth, education and AIDS in Kenya
• Titelzusatz: a long-run analysis
• Mitwirkende: Bruhns, Ramona
• Mitwirkende: Gersbach, Hans
• Verf.angabe: Clive Bell, Ramona Bruhns, and Hans Gersbach
• Verlagsort: Washington, D.C
• Verlag: The World Bank
• E-Jahr: 2006
• Jahr: October 2006
• Umfang: Online-Ressource (1 online resource (47 p.))
• Gesamttitel/Reihe: Policy research working paper ; 4025
• Fussnoten: Gesehen am 14.05.2021
• DOI: doi:10.1596/1813-9450-4025
• Datenträger: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: eng
• (Gesamttitel): World Bank E-Library Archive
• Bibliogr. Hinweis: Erscheint auch als : Druck-Ausgabe: Bell, Clive, 1943 - : Economic growth, education and AIDS in Kenya. - Washington, DC : World Bank, Development Economics, Off. of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, 2006. - 47 S.
• Sach-SW: Aids
• Sach-SW: Aids Epidemic
• Sach-SW: Citizens
• Sach-SW: Diseases
• Sach-SW: Economic Growth
• Sach-SW: Formal Education
• Sach-SW: Health, Nutrition and Population
• Sach-SW: Human Capital
• Sach-SW: Knowledge
• Sach-SW: Labour Market
• Sach-SW: Policy
• Sach-SW: Policy Research
• Sach-SW: Policy Research Working Paper
• Sach-SW: Population Policies
• K10plus-PPN: 724221808

Abstract

The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect