A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population

• Verfasst von: Schiborn, Catarina [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Kühn, Tilman [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Mühlenbruch, Kristin [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Kuxhaus, Olga [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Weikert, Cornelia [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Fritsche, Andreas [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Kaaks, Rudolf [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Schulze, Matthias B. [VerfasserIn]
• Titel: A newly developed and externally validated non-clinical score accurately predicts 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the general adult population
• Verf.angabe: Catarina Schiborn, Tilman Kühn, Kristin Mühlenbruch, Olga Kuxhaus, Cornelia Weikert, Andreas Fritsche, Rudolf Kaaks & Matthias B. Schulze
• E-Jahr: 2021
• Jahr: 04 October 2021
• Umfang: 10 S.
• Teil: volume:11
• Teil: year:2021
• Teil: elocationid:19609
• Teil: pages:1-10
• Teil: extent:10
• Fussnoten: Gesehen am 15.10.2021
• Titel Quelle: Enthalten in: Scientific reports
• Ort Quelle: [London] : Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature, 2011
• Jahr Quelle: 2021
• Band/Heft Quelle: 11(2021), Artikel-ID 19609, Seite 1-10
• ISSN Quelle: 2045-2322
• DOI: doi:10.1038/s41598-021-99103-4
• Datenträger: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: eng
• K10plus-PPN: 1774103923

Abstract

Inclusion of clinical parameters limits the application of most cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction models to clinical settings. We developed and externally validated a non-clinical CVD risk score with a clinical extension and compared the performance to established CVD risk scores. We derived the scores predicting CVD (non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and stroke) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (n = 25,992, cases = 683) using competing risk models and externally validated in EPIC-Heidelberg (n = 23,529, cases = 692). Performance was assessed by C-indices, calibration plots, and expected-to-observed ratios and compared to a non-clinical model, the Pooled Cohort Equation, Framingham CVD Risk Scores (FRS), PROCAM scores, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). Our non-clinical score included age, gender, waist circumference, smoking, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, CVD family history, and dietary parameters. C-indices consistently indicated good discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.786, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.762) comparable to established clinical scores (thereof highest, FRS: EPIC-Potsdam 0.781, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.764). Additional clinical parameters slightly improved discrimination (EPIC-Potsdam 0.796, EPIC-Heidelberg 0.769). Calibration plots indicated very good calibration with minor overestimation in the highest decile of predicted risk. The developed non-clinical 10-year CVD risk score shows comparable discrimination to established clinical scores, allowing assessment of individual CVD risk in physician-independent settings.