Measuring inflation expectations

• Verfasst von: Becker, Christoph [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Dürsch, Peter [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Eife, Thomas A. [VerfasserIn]
• Titel: Measuring inflation expectations
• Titelzusatz: how the response scale shapes density forecasts
• Verf.angabe: Christoph Becker, Peter Duersch, Thomas Eife
• Verlagsort: Heidelberg
• Verlag: Heidelberg University, Department of Economics
• E-Jahr: 2023
• Jahr: 13 Jan. 2023
• Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (41 Seiten)
• Illustrationen: Diagramme
• Gesamttitel/Reihe: AWI discussion paper series ; no. 723 (January 2023)
• DOI: doi:10.11588/heidok.00032677
• URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-326775
• Datenträger: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: eng
• Sach-SW: Inflation
• Sach-SW: density forecast
• Sach-SW: experiment
• Form-SW: Graue Literatur
• K10plus-PPN: 1832207331
• K10plus-PPN:
  Universitätsbibliothek
• Lokale URL UB: Zum Volltext

Abstract

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modifted response scales induces different answers: Shifting, compressing or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed and expanded forecasts. Mean forecast, uncertainty, and disagreement can change by several percentage points. We discuss implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation.