Measuring people’s covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations

• Verfasst von: Steib, Nicole [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Krauss, Stefan [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Binder, Karin [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Büchter, Theresa [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Böcherer-Linder, Katharina [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Eichler, Andreas [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Vogel, Markus [VerfasserIn]
• Titel: Measuring people’s covariational reasoning in Bayesian situations
• Verf.angabe: Nicole Steib, Stefan Krauss, Karin Binder, Theresa Büchter, Katharina Böcherer-Linder, Andreas Eichler and Markus Vogel
• E-Jahr: 2023
• Jahr: 16 October 2023
• Umfang: 15 S.
• Fussnoten: Gesehen am 06.02.2024
• Titel Quelle: Enthalten in: Frontiers in psychology
• Ort Quelle: Lausanne : Frontiers Research Foundation, 2010
• Jahr Quelle: 2023
• Band/Heft Quelle: 14(2023), Artikel-ID 1184370, Seite 1-15
• ISSN Quelle: 1664-1078
• DOI: doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1184370
• Datenträger: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: eng
• K10plus-PPN: 1880071908

Abstract

Previous research on Bayesian reasoning has typically investigated people’s ability to assess a posterior probability (i.e., a positive predictive value) based on prior knowledge (i.e., base rate, true-positive rate, and false-positive rate). In this article, we systematically examine the extent to which people understand the effects of changes in the three input probabilities on the positive predictive value, that is, covariational reasoning. In this regard, two different operationalizations for measuring covariational reasoning (i.e., by single-choice vs. slider format) are investigated in an empirical study with N = 229 university students. In addition, we aim to answer the question wheter a skill in “conventional” Bayesian reasoning is a prerequisite for covariational reasoning.