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Verfasst von:Goldfayn-Frank, Olga [VerfasserIn]   i
 Kieren, Pascal [VerfasserIn]   i
 Trautmann, Stefan T. [VerfasserIn]   i
Titel:A choice-based approach to the measurement of inflation expectations
Verf.angabe:Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Pascal Kieren, Stefan Trautmann
Verlagsort:Heidelberg
Verlag:Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg
E-Jahr:2024
Jahr:14 Feb. 2024
Umfang:1 Online-Ressource (42 Seiten)
Illustrationen:Illustrationen
Gesamttitel/Reihe:AWI discussion paper series ; no. 742 (January 2024)
Abstract:In macroeconomic surveys, inflation expectations are commonly elicited via density forecasts in which respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified ranges in inflation. This question format is increasingly subject to criticism. In this study, we propose a new method to elicit inflation expectations which is based on prior decision theoretic research. We demonstrate that it leads to well-defined expectations with central tendencies close to the corresponding point forecasts and to lower forecast uncertainty than density forecasts. In contrast to currently employed methods, the approach is robust to differences in the state of the economy and thus allows comparisons across time and across countries. Additionally, the method is not very time consuming and portable in the sense that it can be applied to different macroeconomic measures.
DOI:doi:10.11588/heidok.00034429
URL:kostenfrei: Resolving-System: https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-344290
 kostenfrei: Resolving-System: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00034429
 kostenfrei: Volltext: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/34429
 kostenfrei: Verlag: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/34429/7/choice-based_approach_dp742_2024.pdf
 kostenfrei: Resolving-System: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-344290
 kostenfrei: Langzeitarchivierung Nationalbibliothek: https://d-nb.info/1319427960/34
 kostenfrei: Resolving-System: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/286381
 DOI: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00034429
 10419/286381
URN:urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-344290
Datenträger:Online-Ressource
Sprache:eng
Sach-SW:Inflation expectations
 measurement
 surveys
Form-SW:Graue Literatur
K10plus-PPN:188083328X
Verknüpfungen:→ Übergeordnete Aufnahme
 
 
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