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Status: Bibliographieeintrag

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Verfasst von:Heidecke, Julian [VerfasserIn]   i
 Fuhrmann, Jan [VerfasserIn]   i
 Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria [VerfasserIn]   i
Titel:A mathematical model to assess the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine under limited capacities
Verf.angabe:Julian Heidecke, Jan Fuhrmann, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa
E-Jahr:2024
Jahr:March 12, 2024
Umfang:31 S.
Illustrationen:Illustrationen
Fussnoten:Gesehen am 15.102.2024
Titel Quelle:Enthalten in: PLOS ONE
Ort Quelle:San Francisco, California, US : PLOS, 2006
Jahr Quelle:2024
Band/Heft Quelle:19(2024), 3, Artikel-ID e0299880, Seite 1-31
ISSN Quelle:1932-6203
Abstract:Diagnostic testing followed by isolation of identified cases with subsequent tracing and quarantine of close contacts—often referred to as test-trace-isolate-and-quarantine (TTIQ) strategy—is one of the cornerstone measures of infectious disease control. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted that an appropriate response to outbreaks of infectious diseases requires a firm understanding of the effectiveness of such containment strategies. To this end, mathematical models provide a promising tool. In this work, we present a delay differential equation model of TTIQ interventions for infectious disease control. Our model incorporates the assumption of limited TTIQ capacities, providing insights into the reduced effectiveness of testing and tracing in high prevalence scenarios. In addition, we account for potential transmission during the early phase of an infection, including presymptomatic transmission, which may be particularly adverse to a TTIQ based control. Our numerical experiments inspired by the early spread of COVID-19 in Germany demonstrate the effectiveness of TTIQ in a scenario where immunity within the population is low and pharmaceutical interventions are absent, which is representative of a typical situation during the (re-)emergence of infectious diseases for which therapeutic drugs or vaccines are not yet available. Stability and sensitivity analyses reveal both disease-dependent and disease-independent factors that impede or enhance the success of TTIQ. Studying the diminishing impact of TTIQ along simulations of an epidemic wave, we highlight consequences for intervention strategies.
DOI:doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0299880
URL:Bitte beachten Sie: Dies ist ein Bibliographieeintrag. Ein Volltextzugriff für Mitglieder der Universität besteht hier nur, falls für die entsprechende Zeitschrift/den entsprechenden Sammelband ein Abonnement besteht oder es sich um einen OpenAccess-Titel handelt.

kostenfrei: Volltext: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299880
 kostenfrei: Volltext: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0299880
 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299880
Datenträger:Online-Ressource
Sprache:eng
Sach-SW:COVID 19
 Epidemiology
 Hygiene
 Infectious disease control
 Infectious disease epidemiology
 Quarantines
 Respiratory infections
 Virus testing
K10plus-PPN:1905727070
Verknüpfungen:→ Zeitschrift

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