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Verfasst von:Conrad, Christian [VerfasserIn]   i
 Lahiri, Kajal [VerfasserIn]   i
Titel:Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
Verf.angabe:Christian Conrad and Kajal Lahiri
Verlagsort:Heidelberg
 Heidelberg
Verlag:Alfred-Weber-Institut
 Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg
E-Jahr:2024
Jahr:22 Okt. 2024
 22 Okt. 2024
Umfang:1 Online-Ressource (36 Seiten)
Illustrationen:Illustrationen
Gesamttitel/Reihe:AWI discussion paper series ; no. 754 (September 2024)
Abstract:Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial crosssectional heterogeneity. This chapter focuses on heterogeneity in the expectations among professional forecasters, first presenting stylized facts and discussing theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations, before providing an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the different theories and pointing to possible directions for future research. A literature review is complemented by empirical evidence based on the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Financial Market Survey, covering the behavior of expectations heterogeneity during the recent surge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. A central finding is that differences in perceptions about the workings of the economy and heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time.
DOI:doi:10.11588/heidok.00035499
URL:kostenfrei: Resolving-System: https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-354990
 kostenfrei: Resolving-System: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00035499
 kostenfrei: Volltext: http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/archiv/35499
 kostenfrei: Verlag: https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/35499/7/Conrad_Lahiri_dp754_2024.pdf
 kostenfrei: Resolving-System: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/306524
 DOI: https://doi.org/10.11588/heidok.00035499
 10419/306524
URN:urn:nbn:de:bsz:16-heidok-354990
Datenträger:Online-Ressource
Sprache:eng
Sach-SW:disagreement
 expectations
 forecasts
 rationality
 survey data
Form-SW:Graue Literatur
K10plus-PPN:1907298495
Verknüpfungen:→ Übergeordnete Aufnahme
 
 
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