Deliberation and confidence change

• Verfasst von: Heinzelmann, Nora [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Hartmann, Stephan [VerfasserIn]
• Titel: Deliberation and confidence change
• Verf.angabe: Nora Heinzelmann, Stephan Hartmann
• E-Jahr: 2022
• Jahr: 25 February 2022
• Umfang: 13 S.
• Fussnoten: Gesehen am 27.01.2025
• Titel Quelle: Enthalten in: Synthese
• Ort Quelle: Dordrecht [u.a.] : Springer Science + Business Media B.V, 1936
• Jahr Quelle: 2022
• Band/Heft Quelle: 200(2022), 1, Artikel-ID 42, Seite 1-13
• ISSN Quelle: 1573-0964
• DOI: doi:10.1007/s11229-022-03584-3
• Datenträger: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: eng
• Sach-SW: Bayesian updating
• Sach-SW: Confidence
• Sach-SW: Credence
• Sach-SW: Deliberation
• Sach-SW: Social epistemology
• K10plus-PPN: 191567283X

Abstract

We argue that social deliberation may increase an agent’s confidence and credence under certain circumstances. An agent considers a proposition H and assigns a probability to it. However, she is not fully confident that she herself is reliable in this assignment. She then endorses H during deliberation with another person, expecting him to raise serious objections. To her surprise, however, the other person does not raise any objections to H. How should her attitudes toward H change? It seems plausible that she should (i) increase the credence she assigns to H and, at the same time, (ii) increase the reliability she assigns to herself concerning H (i.e. her confidence). A Bayesian model helps us to investigate under what conditions, if any, this is rational.