Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths

• Verfasst von: Costa, Diogo [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Rohleder, Sven [VerfasserIn]
• Verfasst von: Bozorgmehr, Kayvan [VerfasserIn]
• Titel: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence and deaths
• Titelzusatz: cross-national natural experiment in 32 European countries
• Verf.angabe: Diogo Costa, Sven Rohleder and Kayvan Bozorgmehr
• E-Jahr: 2024
• Jahr: 28 August 2024
• Umfang: 17 S.
• Illustrationen: Illustrationen
• Fussnoten: Gesehen am 07.10.2024
• Titel Quelle: Enthalten in: BMC public health
• Ort Quelle: London : BioMed Central, 2001
• Jahr Quelle: 2024
• Band/Heft Quelle: 24(2024), Artikel-ID 2341, Seite 1-17
• ISSN Quelle: 1471-2458
• DOI: doi:10.1186/s12889-024-19799-7
• Datenträger: Online-Ressource
• Sprache: eng
• Sach-SW: Covid-19
• Sach-SW: Europe
• Sach-SW: Infectious diseases
• Sach-SW: Multi-level modelling
• Sach-SW: Natural experiment
• Sach-SW: Non-pharmaceutical interventions
• K10plus-PPN: 1904913571

Abstract

Purpose: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor - COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker - OxCGRT. Methods: NPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5-25, and C4-C6, weeks 35–52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others). Results: During the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries. Conclusion: In the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT).